The decision by Greek voters to back their government and reject what they feel is an unfair bailout agreement doesn't necessarily mean that Greece will leave the single currency, albeit that now looks more likely than at any point, but more probably will just be seen as another element in this tortuous process of negotiation, according to Chief Investment Officer Haig Bathgate.
What has been evident for some time now is that Greece's debt burden is unsustainable, and the Greek people have said clearly now that they reject the austerity that has caused so much hardship – some conciliatory noises must now come from the IMF and EU. But this is not a vote for the drachma. We are keen to stress that the Greeks by a huge majority want to stay in the euro, and that is a desire that should be shared by even the most hawkish of the country's creditors. It's in the interests of no one in Europe to see Greece leave the euro – in contrast that could be something that an increasingly belligerent Russia, or even a mischievous China, would like. An element of geopolitics should help focus the minds of the Eurogroup of finance ministers over the coming hours and days.
So due to the vested interests all round we would still be surprised if Greece ultimately left the euro – but with the inexperience and volatile nature of the Syriza government being laid bare over the past week (and Yanis Varoufakis' resignation this morning reinforces this) it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the Eurozone will lose patience and Greece could exit.
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